Calgary Real Estate Update

by Frank N. McCullough, BBA, M.Eng. REALTOR December 2010 Edition # 45

Dear Friend,

Calgary, End of November 2010: The market shows early signs of a better market in 2011.

Thanks to all of you who have chosen to work with us and referred us on to your friends. Our commitment is to give integrity to our role as agents and always to act in our clients' best interests.

"Somebody once said that in looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence and energy. And if they don't have the first, the other two will kill you." - Warren Buffet

Graph 1 - No. of Avail. Listings at Month End

Supply Analysis: A quick look at inventory shows it has continued downward from end of October, and while still relatively high, the path is now moving to within about 1000 in excess of a normal, expected number for this time of year. Note that in the last two months inventory has moved from the second highest on the graph, to third. Extension of this trend means we will likely reach a normal inventory in a couple of months, early in the new year.

Graph 2 - No. of Sales per Month

Demand Analysis: Demand remains below average levels and in paralleling the average curve with little change from October to November. Importantly, October reached back up to the recent low year of 2008 and November has broken through Nov 2008, making this past month the 2nd lowest sales for the month since 2004.

Analysis and Opinion

The analysis shows early signs of recovery, with relatively lower inventory over the past few months and a flat, but at least not downward demand curve. There has been no particular motivating factor showing up this year that has sparked home sales. Prices have not generally gone up and this may be the main motivation for buyers standing on the sidelines. That said, demand does get pent up and this year was an example of too quiet, which I've seen affect markets when demand finally breaks out. Inventory, while above average has been quietly drifting downward after an exceptional peak in June and has reduced almost 1/3 from that peak. Inventory doesn't have too far to go to become average. Usually, a few months after that buyers become aware and interested in the market. There is potential for a strong spring demand, should inventory continue to drop in the three months.

Until Next time,

Frank & Mitzy

Frank N. McCullough

BBA, M.Eng

ABR®

Associate Broker

403-542-1799

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